Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
