Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
